Future of Power by Joseph S. Nye Jr

Author:Joseph S. Nye, Jr.
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781586488925
Publisher: PublicAffairs

CHAPTER 6

Power Transition

The Question of American Decline

No matter how power is measured, an equal distribution of power among states is relatively rare. More often the processes of uneven growth mean that some states will be rising and others declining. When one state is preponderant in resources, observers often refer to the situation as “hegemony,” and as far back as ancient Greece, historians have explained the origin of major wars in terms of hegemonic transition. Thucydides ascribed the cause of the Peloponnesian War (which tore apart the Greek city-state system in the fifth century BCE) to the rise in the power of Athens and the fear it created in Sparta. Similarly, many historians attribute the underlying cause of World War I, which destroyed Europe’s centrality in the world, to the rise in the power of Germany and the fear it created in Britain. As one political scientist puts it, “The outbreaks of hegemonic struggles have most frequently been triggered by fears of ultimate decline and the perceived erosion of power.”1

Some expect that the rise of China will have similar effects on the United States in the twenty-first century. One Sinologist argues that “sooner or later, if present trends continue, war is probable in Asia. . . . China today is actively seeking to scare the United States away from East Asia rather as Germany sought to frighten Britain before World War I.” Similarly, columnist Robert Kagan claims, “The Chinese leadership views the world in much the same way Kaiser Wilhelm II did a century ago. . . . Chinese leaders chafe at the constraints on them and worry that they must change the rules of the international system before the international system changes them.”2 University of Chicago political scientist John Mearsheimer asserts, “To put it bluntly, China cannot rise peacefully.”3 Two more cautious analysts argue, “It is hardly inevitable that China will be a threat to American interests, but the United States is much more likely to go to war with China than it is with any other major power.”4

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